Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!

Around all of the blather concerning the explosives missing from the depot in Iraq one may sense a strategery from the Bush people. First, what do we sort of know so far-

1 - 387 tons of big time explosives are missing.

2 - they were last seen by IAEA inspectors about a month before the war.

3 - they were noted missing about one month after the fall of Bagdad.

4 - it would be almost impossible for the required 100 men and 40 ten ton trucks two remove the material after the arrival of US troops.

5 - the Army is reviewing satalite images from before the war and after the last IAEA inspection that show heavy truck activity in the area.

6 - it is more plausible that Saddam moved the material before the war than after we got there. After all this was his MO. He liked to hide munitions in schools and hospitals as well as mosques.

So why is Kerry on this so hard? Kerry is not trying to convince new voters, he is preaching to his base. This, I believe, is part of the get out the vote portion of the Kerry campaign. He will stick with the story even as it falls flat because that's what challengers do late in a race. Besides, his base really doesn't care if he is factually accurate as long as he beats Bush. For them, Kerry will do until Hillary challenges him in '08.

So why is Bush being relatively mute? Either something did go wrong, or this is the sucker play of the campaign. If Bush knows that Kerry is out to lunch on this and has the evidence to prove it, he can bide his time and reveal it at his choosing. Hoping that Kerry will get too far out on that branch to back up is the plan.

OR Bush is holding on to something better. A dishonorable discharge charge?? Who knows, but the October surprise from either side hasn't been revealed yet. Stay tuned . . .